Thursday, June 05, 2008

Predictions: Applicable for the next few months

I want to get this prediction on record.  Here is the current situation:

A) PM Olmert is under investigation for receiving unreported cash from a US citizen.  At the very least, there is an ethical problem, at most, he is guilty of a number of criminal offenses.   Olmert's political situation is very weak.

B) Rocket and mortar fire from Gaza continues and is inflicting not only "damage", but also maiming and killing Israeli citizens.

C) The keystone of Olmert's coalition is the ultra-orthodox Shas party which is threatening to bolt if the government refuses to increase child support payments.  The government is against this because it wants citizens to be productive workers and not sponges.

D) Olmert is in the US talking to the US government.  The US government is a lame duck presidency with less than six months to go.  There is no significant cost to the US for looking the other way if Israel does anything.


Within two weeks of Olmert's return from the US, the Israeli army will enter Gaza and restart the active war with Hamas.  The initial attack will cause significant collateral damage and will cost lives on both sides.

As with all Israeli wars the opposition will understand that it must support the troops and hence the current government.  This will delay any proceedings to schedule new elections and will effectively silence any discussion about the Olmert investigation.

If Israel recaptures Gaza and/or destroys the Hamas leadership, then the government will claim success and Olmert will be viewed as a hero.  Olmert's criminal investigation will be delayed for two years until he finishes his current term, at which point he will be indicted and convicted.  Of course, he will receive a pardon as the Israeli hero who restored Israel's power to the Middle East.

If Israel fails to achieve its objectives and suffers major losses OR if Hizbalah and/or Syria get involved, then Olmert will go down in history as the man who started two loosing wars and Israel will be hard pressed.

Olmert is betting that:
  • The Israeli army is prepared and ready for Hamas
  • The Iranians are all talk and will back down from a fight, hence Lebanon and Syria will stay quiet.
  • Olmert has nothing to loose.  His political career is over the minute the Knesset gets a chance to vote on new elections.  This way, he has a chance to come out smelling like roses instead of poop.
I sure hope I'm wrong.

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  • Hi Elliot, I guess you got your hope and were wrong about this one. But is continuing status quo, that presumably will continue until something gets worse, better than your prediction?

    By Blogger Dov, at 11:45 PM, August 30, 2008  

  • Its probably just a matter of time. Olmert is a lame duck, but he doesn't act that way. If and when elections in Kamida happen, perhaps that will change.

    By Blogger Elliot Jaffe, at 12:03 AM, August 31, 2008  

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